Pre-tourney Rankings
Big Ten
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Michigan St. 100.0%   2   28 - 6 15 - 4 28 - 6 15 - 4 +21.4      +12.2 4 +9.3 11 69.1 161 +20.7 6 +20.4 2
6 Michigan 100.0%   2   28 - 6 15 - 5 28 - 6 15 - 5 +19.9      +8.0 18 +11.9 2 62.7 323 +20.2 8 +18.9 3
10 Purdue 100.0%   4   23 - 9 16 - 4 23 - 9 16 - 4 +17.7      +11.5 6 +6.2 33 64.9 285 +16.6 16 +21.2 1
14 Wisconsin 100.0%   4   23 - 10 13 - 6 23 - 10 13 - 6 +15.9      +4.4 60 +11.5 3 60.9 339 +16.2 17 +16.7 5
23 Maryland 100.0%   6   22 - 10 13 - 7 22 - 10 13 - 7 +14.0      +6.8 27 +7.2 21 65.9 259 +14.8 22 +16.9 4
36 Iowa 97.7%   8   22 - 11 10 - 9 22 - 11 10 - 9 +11.3      +9.3 16 +2.0 118 72.9 82 +13.8 25 +13.0 6
38 Nebraska 0.0%   17 - 16 6 - 14 17 - 16 6 - 14 +11.1      +6.1 37 +5.0 51 67.2 221 +10.6 47 +7.3 13
39 Indiana 30.4%   17 - 15 8 - 12 17 - 15 8 - 12 +11.1      +4.4 61 +6.7 28 67.6 213 +10.7 44 +10.0 8
42 Penn St. 0.0%   14 - 18 7 - 13 14 - 18 7 - 13 +10.8      +3.9 73 +6.9 26 68.6 181 +8.1 65 +8.9 10
45 Minnesota 95.3%   8   21 - 13 9 - 11 21 - 13 9 - 11 +10.6      +4.8 52 +5.8 40 68.9 169 +12.9 31 +11.3 7
46 Ohio St. 51.9%   11   19 - 14 8 - 12 19 - 14 8 - 12 +10.6      +4.0 69 +6.6 30 65.4 275 +11.5 36 +9.7 9
71 Northwestern 0.0%   13 - 19 4 - 16 13 - 19 4 - 16 +7.0      -0.6 193 +7.7 19 65.5 273 +4.8 105 +3.8 14
74 Rutgers 0.0%   14 - 17 7 - 12 14 - 17 7 - 12 +6.8      +1.1 147 +5.7 43 68.6 180 +7.2 72 +8.7 11
75 Illinois 0.0%   12 - 21 7 - 13 12 - 21 7 - 13 +6.7      +3.8 77 +2.9 97 74.6 58 +5.7 91 +8.4 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Michigan St. 2.0 100.0
Michigan 2.0 100.0
Purdue 1.0 100.0
Wisconsin 4.0 100.0
Maryland 4.0 100.0
Iowa 6.0 100.0
Nebraska 13.0 100.0
Indiana 8.0 100.0
Penn St. 10.0 100.0
Minnesota 7.0 100.0
Ohio St. 8.0 100.0
Northwestern 14.0 100.0
Rutgers 10.0 100.0
Illinois 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan St. 15 - 5 100.0
Michigan 15 - 5 100.0
Purdue 16 - 4 100.0
Wisconsin 13 - 7 100.0
Maryland 13 - 7 100.0
Iowa 10 - 10 100.0
Nebraska 6 - 14 100.0
Indiana 8 - 12 100.0
Penn St. 7 - 13 100.0
Minnesota 9 - 11 100.0
Ohio St. 8 - 12 100.0
Northwestern 4 - 16 100.0
Rutgers 7 - 13 100.0
Illinois 7 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan St.
Michigan
Purdue 100.0% 100.0
Wisconsin
Maryland
Iowa
Nebraska
Indiana
Penn St.
Minnesota
Ohio St.
Northwestern
Rutgers
Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2   35.9 56.6 7.4 0.1
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   12.4 46.6 36.5 4.5 0.1 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.8 4.7 36.3 48.9 9.0 0.4 100.0%
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.0 0.2 13.7 51.8 31.6 2.7 0.0 100.0%
Maryland 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6   0.2 3.0 21.7 39.6 34.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Iowa 97.7% 0.0% 97.7% 8   0.0 0.4 21.7 45.1 23.7 6.2 0.6 2.3 97.7%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Indiana 30.4% 0.0% 30.4% 0.0 1.7 3.5 9.7 13.8 1.8 69.6 30.4%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Minnesota 95.3% 0.0% 95.3% 8   0.0 5.1 36.5 39.4 13.5 0.9 4.7 95.3%
Ohio St. 51.9% 0.0% 51.9% 11   0.1 2.6 7.6 18.3 20.9 2.3 48.1 51.9%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.3% 81.7% 58.8% 34.5% 19.1% 10.1%
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.7% 73.2% 46.2% 23.6% 11.4% 5.3%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 89.2% 59.3% 25.6% 12.0% 4.8% 2.0%
Wisconsin 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 83.8% 49.2% 16.5% 6.7% 2.4% 0.8%
Maryland 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 65.9% 25.9% 9.1% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Iowa 97.7% 0.1% 97.7% 50.6% 8.5% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana 30.4% 8.5% 26.8% 10.8% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 95.3% 0.1% 95.3% 45.3% 6.5% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Ohio St. 51.9% 11.9% 46.5% 18.4% 4.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.8 0.0 1.9 34.2 50.3 13.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.7 0.0 2.2 39.5 48.0 10.2 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.6 0.2 2.4 12.5 31.3 34.5 16.5 2.6 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 99.6% 3.1 0.4 5.0 21.1 38.7 26.8 7.2 0.8 0.0
Elite Eight 91.3% 1.6 8.7 36.5 39.5 13.3 1.9 0.1
Final Four 64.3% 0.8 35.7 48.5 14.7 1.0 0.0
Final Game 36.3% 0.4 63.7 33.8 2.5
Champion 18.5% 0.2 81.5 18.5